Auto Sales Will Plummet by 2030 and Employment Along With It

The age of the self driving vehicle is upon us, and with it an unprecedented change in lifestyles. Every major car manufacturer is investing in self driving vehicles because they're game changers in the arena of personal mobility, and it goes beyond people enjoying the freedom car ownership affords.

First, there's the novelty of it all, as newcomers to the industry like Google roll out their offerings, about the same time Mercedes does theirs. The Google car is tiny, in a cutesy kind of way. The Mercedes, ever the luxury vehicle, looks like an upscale living room on wheels, complete with entertainment consoles. Consumers will have their choices, from inexpensive to posh. But it doesn't stop there.

Savvy entrepreneurs will realize a critical truth that most of us have long accepted as gospel. Everyone has a personal vehicle, and some families have two or more. But where do they go on any given day? To the parking lot at work, wherever that might be. While owners are working, their cars sit idle. People return home and park them again, in a garage or curbside, no matter. Then there are the errands and, if they're lucky the owners go on vacations, one of the only times cars are driven for an extended period.

Enter the entrepreneur who looks at the total costs that people incur for that freedom and say, what if Lois, or Jim could pass on car ownership but keep their freedom. What if Mary could call up a vehicle on her smart phone, much like her friends in the city who call up their Uber taxi, or one of their competitors, like Lift. Or, they could pick up a Zip car parked nearby, take it to their destination and leave it for the next guy.

Suddenly, there is no need for personalized ownership. All the freedom one wants is still there, but without the gas, the oil changes, tires, insurance and big-ticket maintenance. No need for an empty vehicle depreciating in the parking lot. A call is made, and the vehicle announces its arrival on the consumer's smart phone. At a time when wages are continuing their seemingly inexorable decline, not having a car payment and other auto-related expenses makes other priorities possible. Young people will find it easier to own homes, take vacations, and live better quality lives.

Uber fleets will no longer need drivers. They no longer need any humans. Unless, of course, they want investors of a sort.Their value in the economic chain is their communication network that links drivers and fares. The drivers signal when they're free and Uber sends them the next available fare. Uber doesn't own vehicles. The drivers do. But if there are no drivers, can those people, instead of being out of work, still buy their own vehicles and do the Uber thing, without actually being there? Uber still gets its cut, without the burden of car expenses, maintenance, insurance, etc.

Millions of fewer cars needed. If cars can serve their function with 90% utilization instead of ten percent, imagine how many fewer vehicles will be needed. Initially, Americans will be reluctant to give up their personal vehicles, equating such a move to giving their freedom of mobility. They might imagine what it costs to take a traditional taxi, and the uneasy feeling of having to wait for the ride.

Stop thinking for a moment of what it costs to take a taxi. The efficiencies of self driving will drastically cut the cost per use. Imagine what it costs to own a car today. Consumer reports estimate the following:

“Over the first five years of ownership, the median car costs more than $9,100 a year to own—about what it costs to own a midsized SUV such as the Nissan Murano or an upscale sedan such as the Lexus ES. But it's easy to find nice cars that cost much less. Sporty cars such as the base Mini Cooper can cost as little as $5,800 a year to own. Even a quick, refined, and roomy small SUV such as the V6-powered Toyota RAV4 costs as little as $7,800 a year to own.”

That's $650/on the low side and as much as $758 per month, median price (half the cars cost more than that and half cost less). Uber may still want to have private owners like they do now. And, the benefit to the owners is that they don't have to sit behind a wheel. They can buy more than one and create a passive income stream. Or not. Uber may invest in their own vehicles and fight with other competitors.

Currently, the average taxi driver makes just under $30,000/year, more than twice the poverty level for a single person (You try living on that). Uber, on the other hand, reports its drivers earn $90,000/year because they have greater efficiencies and don't pay many of the fees that taxi companies shoulder.

http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-drivers-salary-90000-2014-5. Even with the 20%cut  they pay to Uber, it's a sizable paycheck. High tech workers make just over $88,000.

And, as more and more multi-use cars become available and competition increases, the economics of not owning will be increasingly attractive. Competition in the future may come in the form of 'local' cabbies who create their own apps and promote buying local. Profits stay local, with no money going to a corporate giant in some city far away. The ride has a social aspect associated with it.

It's not just cars.

It's over-the-road semis, the same ones that are currently used 'part time' because human drivers are limited by law as to how many hours they can drive for safety reasons. And it's local delivery trucks. The change to self driving vehicles will permit 24/7 operations, minus time for routine maintenance.

The point is that, as self driving vehicles replace human driven ones, their usage will be limited only by day-to-day consumer demand and downtime for routine maintenance. Fewer vehicles = fewer manufacturing jobs, fewer ancillary jobs, but safer highways.

By 2030, self driving vehicles will have changed the economic and social landscape for us all. And, if they're electric, the carbon footprint will be markedly altered for the better.

MADD Will Find Relief

Self driving vehicles are a boon to society in other ways as well. Drivers who would operate under the influence are no longer threats to themselves and others. The elderly, who succumb physically and emotionally due to their lack of mobility after losing driving privileges, will no longer experience such losses. Children can go about their business, freeing up their 'soccer moms'. You have to wonder, what will become of public parking garages when such needs are no longer there? And, what will we do with our attached garages?

Now, about them jobs.....

http://www.truckinfo.net/trucking/stats.htm

• How many trucks operate in the U.S.?
  Estimates of 15.5 million trucks operate in the U.S.. Of this figure 2 million are tractor trailers.
• How many truckers are there?
  It is an estimated over 3.5 million truck drivers in the U.S.  Of that one in nine are independent, a majority of which are owner operators. Canada has in excess of 250,000 truck drivers.

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/taxi-drivers-and-chauffeurs.htm

• Number of taxi drivers (2012) 233,000 Median wage, ($22,820/yr, $10.97/hr.)That's a far cry from the income reported above by Business Insider but, for the purpose of this article, it's not a major concern. Drivers are going away either way.

It's not just the 3.8 million drivers. It's the families they support, and the local businesses they frequent. This will change the entire nature of truck stops. Three and a half million drivers eat a lot of food, buy lots of general merchandise, and use truck stop showers, frequent low-cost hotels.

Consider, too, the purchasing habits of consumers on trips if small refrigerators and microwaves are on board. Sure, there's still a need to stop and stretch and relief, but less of a need for fast food and snacks. And, who's to say a toilet may not be part of later models, especially those designed for distance driving.

Finally, consider that driver's licenses will no longer be necessary. Will some sort of personal identification be mandated in their place? Will there even be a need for motor vehicle registrations if such things can be done electronically at the initial point of sale? Will license plates even be necessary if a designation is embedded in the vehicles software and can be read as easily as a retail item can be identified using radio frequency ID (rfid)?

Imagine your children never experiencing life behind the wheel, or your stress in having to teach them. Imagine, too, the freedom it affords all of you. Driving is replaced by reading, writing, texting, watching videos or playing board games. Imagine the drives to work on California highways. Will you be able to claim drive time as part of your work day? Can you ask for shorter hours at the office, or overtime pay at time and a half?

The full implications of a driverless world have yet to be discovered. Feel free to add your thoughts.